Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 30.918573 33.190012 35.660345 38.568024 41.925498 45.716955 50.375892
2025-11-02 27.636571 30.676075 34.194688 38.644467 44.238742 51.214888 60.887716
2025-11-09 25.115520 28.386287 32.305568 37.472614 44.316023 53.422222 67.182698
2025-11-16 23.187497 26.543880 30.666396 36.270814 43.995388 54.823156 72.433126
2025-11-23 22.378532 25.971106 30.503811 36.880528 46.083267 59.819138 84.380388
2025-11-30 21.446146 25.146449 29.911307 36.795825 47.106001 63.330104 94.934665
2025-12-07 20.524429 24.260535 29.149743 36.367489 47.512942 65.866867 104.539901
2025-12-14 19.284742 22.881426 27.624088 34.697702 45.784286 64.459602 105.456405
2025-12-21 18.763451 22.428331 27.333866 34.801776 46.865327 68.169698 119.338986
2025-12-28 18.391790 22.151223 27.261652 35.210311 48.473880 73.165769 139.257028
2026-01-04 17.678063 21.370014 26.426691 34.375672 47.858350 73.655091 146.978166
2026-01-11 17.453730 21.251809 26.531949 35.010445 49.878859 80.017086 178.210145
2026-01-18 17.171825 21.121075 26.728179 36.011795 53.120471 91.098908 249.886413
2026-01-25 16.647580 20.630051 26.373926 36.108915 54.766140 99.472037 340.790686
2026-02-01 15.905706 19.780928 25.412299 35.065371 53.928338 100.953030 397.564041
2026-02-08 15.221610 18.983565 24.483106 33.996183 52.881041 101.542728 456.916598
2026-02-15 14.963124 18.793186 24.477096 34.539163 55.350800 114.037362 832.840793
2026-02-22 14.590381 18.413967 24.147557 34.463778 56.442314 122.854339 1640.826909
2026-03-01 14.181814 17.962599 23.676011 34.082296 56.762162 129.212856 4292.680989
2026-03-08 13.571587 17.187035 22.648774 32.591396 54.239228 123.221721 3858.763326
2026-03-15 13.319687 16.942900 22.469143 32.684497 55.581302 134.190964 NaN
2026-03-22 13.136656 16.794599 22.435472 33.049730 57.675899 150.605568 NaN
2026-03-29 12.753785 16.327106 21.853745 32.303171 56.778100 151.688752 NaN